Britain’s economy has been caught moving, according to new real time indicators designed to detect activity before it has time to deny everything.
The Office for National Statistics released experimental data on economic activity and social change on 29 August, using rapid response surveys, novel data sources and methods still developing the confidence to call themselves methods in public.
The indicators draw on signals including shipping, fuel spending, electricity and gas prices, potential redundancies, flights, property certificates and online job adverts. Together, they offer a quicker view of the country than slower established statistics, although they still cannot explain why the quickest thing in Britain remains a rumour about a railway.
One measure watches fuel demand. Another counts ships visiting ports. Others follow flights, property certificates and job adverts. The national dashboard is therefore observing movement from every angle, except the angle where somebody admits that movement is not necessarily progress.
Prudence, Curator of Emerging Lines, is understood to believe the economy is definitely doing something. The Directorate of Immediate Context has not disputed this. It merely wants to identify the verb after seasonal adjustment.
The ONS describes the figures as official statistics in development. That distinction matters. Early signals can change as more information arrives, which means the dashboard offers policymakers a timely view while politely declining to become evidence of anything too specific.
This is a useful service for institutions that need an answer before the facts have finished getting dressed. A traditional statistic arrives later with a respectable explanation. A real time indicator arrives first, points at a blinking line and asks the Treasury to supply the confidence.
The figures are not inconsistent because they change. They are experimental because they are allowed to change. Britain has finally built a national measuring instrument that can revise its opinion without first becoming a newspaper columnist.
The economic pulse has therefore been located. It is provisional, surrounded by methodological notes and moving quickly enough to require a dashboard. The dashboard cannot turn every movement into growth. It can, however, offer the one British promotion better than certainty: permission to look decisive until next week’s correction.
Real story: Office for National Statistics.
