UK GDP fell by 0.1% in May, prompting the economy to pat every pocket and insist it had definitely seen growth somewhere. The graph has not collapsed so much as lowered itself carefully towards the floor.
The Office for National Statistics estimated that monthly real GDP fell by 0.1% in May 2025, following a 0.3% fall in April. Yet GDP grew by 0.5% across the three months to May, giving every economist two charts, several caveats and the chance to call the picture mixed with the solemnity of a coroner.
At the Bureau of Carefully Rounded Feelings, statistician Margo Decimal said the figures were being handled sensitively. The monthly number had gone down, she explained, so it had been placed beside the three month number and asked not to make a scene. The bureau then dimmed the lights and offered both figures a biscuit.
Services output rose by 0.1% in May. Production fell by 0.9% and construction fell by 0.6%. The sectors are therefore understood to be standing in separate corners of the spreadsheet, each insisting that the other started it.
Over the three months to May, services, production and construction all grew. Construction was up 1.2%, which allowed the economy to point at the longer stretch of activity and say it was doing perfectly well, provided nobody asked it to explain Tuesday. The monthly figures were quietly moved behind a plant.
Early GDP estimates can change as new information arrives. Revision is a feature of honest statistics, not the gag. The gag is the national demand for an economic verdict that fits on a mug, survives one rainy afternoon and does not require anyone to admit that time has several inconvenient lengths.
Chief Economic Stationer Roland Column said perspective mattered. He recommended watching the pattern rather than panicking at one decimal place. The pattern has since been placed in a waiting room with a magazine from 2019, where it is being monitored by a committee that describes its own breathing as encouraging.
The economy has found its keys in the three month figure, misplaced them in the monthly figure and blamed the coat for having too many pockets. It is now checking the quarterly lining, while the statisticians calmly explain that losing something in a longer period still counts as growth.
Real story: Office for National Statistics.
