UK economic growth rose by 0.3% from April to June, after 0.7% from January to March. The nation now has the financial momentum of someone carrying a shopping basket towards the till, then remembering they have a savings account.
UK economic growth discovers the virtue of waiting
The Office for National Statistics sets out an economy that is moving while carefully declining to specify where. UK economic growth remains positive. That is excellent news for anyone who enjoys a rising line, provided they do not ask what it can buy.
However, the slowdown from 0.7% to 0.3% gives the country a compelling strategy. Do enough to produce a statistic. Do not do enough to encourage celebration before the next statistic arrives. The economy is not stalled. It is proceeding at a pace that lets every official sentence contain the word cautious.
Household saving stayed above its pre pandemic level. Meanwhile, activity in consumer facing services remained around 5% below its pre pandemic level. Families are showing remarkable discipline. They keep money in the bank and avoid spending it on the shops, meals and experiences that might remind the economy why it exists.
Saving becomes a national growth plan
At the fictional Centre for Delayed Purchases, director Maureen Ledger has reportedly placed her savings in a locked box. She then put the key in another locked box. The centre calls this confidence building. Its next project will examine whether buying the first box counted as growth.
The official commentary suggests that spending could recover. This is a splendid way to describe an economy standing outside a shop, admiring the lights and waiting for confidence to return with proof of address. Every withheld purchase becomes a future opportunity. Soon the future is so crowded with opportunities that nobody can find the present.
Businesses are waiting too. Economic uncertainty affected turnover for 28% of trading businesses in the cited September bulletin. The others may have felt confident, confused or still searched for the correct box on the form. UK economic growth now provides the perfect excuse for every hesitation. Nobody refuses to act. They merely preserve the possibility of action.
So the nation saves, services wait and official commentary stays upbeat in the careful manner of someone praising a kettle for being almost ready. Britain has not discovered a new economic model. It has discovered the only boom that arrives when everyone stops spending and calls the queue an investment.
Source: Office for National Statistics quarterly economic commentary.
